AN ANALYSIS OF THE APPLICATION OF THE ALTMAN Z-SCORE AND ZMIJEWSKI MODELS IN MEASURING THE POTENTIAL FOR FINANCIAL DISTRESS IN STATE-OWNED CONSTRUCTION COMPANIES LISTED ON THE INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE (PRE- AND POST-COVID-19)

ANALISIS PENERAPAN MODEL ALTMAN Z-SCORE DAN ZMIJEWSKI DALAM MENGUKUR POTENSI FINANCIAL DISTRESS PADA PERUSAHAAN KONSTRUKSI BUMN YANG TERDAFTAR DI BEI (PRA & PASCA COVID)

Abstract

State-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the construction sector are characterized by capital-intensive operations, project-based activities, and substantial financing requirements, making them vulnerable to financial distress when project cash flows weaken. This study aims to analyze the potential for financial distress at PT Adhi Karya (Persero) Tbk., PT Waskita Karya (Persero) Tbk., PT Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk., and PT Pembangunan Perumahan (Persero) Tbk. over the 2017–2024 period using the Modified Altman Z-Score and Zmijewski X-Score models. It also seeks to describe the dynamics of the scores over time and verify differences in scores across the pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic periods of COVID-19. This study employs a quantitative descriptive and comparative approach using secondary data obtained from annual financial statements. The analysis involves calculating the financial ratios underlying both models, classifying the resulting scores, analyzing trends, and conducting the Kruskal–Wallis test. The results indicate that the Altman Z-Score model predominantly classifies the companies within the grey zone and distress zone, with only a few observations falling within the safe zone. In contrast, the Zmijewski model produces more varied classifications across companies: PT Pembangunan Perumahan consistently falls into the safe category, whereas PT Adhi Karya and PT Waskita Karya are more frequently classified in the distress category. Overall, changes in the Zmijewski scores across the 32 observations are relatively balanced between distress and non-distress classifications. Trend analysis reveals a marked decline in Altman Z-Scores during the pandemic, followed by a gradual recovery in the subsequent period. The Kruskal–Wallis test indicates statistically significant differences across periods based on the Altman Z-Score model, whereas the differences based on the Zmijewski model are not statistically significant. These findings suggest that the two models capture different dimensions of financial condition; therefore, their complementary use provides a more informative assessment of financial distress dynamics.